By Shaun Modi, CEO

Morgan Stanley research reveals that UK companies using AI have experienced net job losses of 8% over the past 12 months. At best, it’s a signal of transformation; in no way is it an accurate prediction of what the jobs market will look like post-metamorphosis.  

Assessing the impact of AI on the job market right now is akin to forecasting a stock valuation ten years from now during the first week of its live listing. While some of the NVIDIA stock winners can argue plausibility, generally, you can scrap the ‘Motley’ and keep the ‘Fool’. It’s too early to tell. 

The vast majority of businesses are still investing in generalised, generative AI as a procurement box check. They are the hungry caterpillar, chowing down on anything ‘AI-enabled’ and having a great time doing it. They might gain some efficiency shortcuts, but they’re still feeding the old machine. Others are in chrysalis, investing wisely in bespoke AI applications, readying themselves to enter a new evolution in how they work and service. Hardly any have emerged into the butterfly. 

Very few even know what that would look like. Here’s my definition: a company that leverages agentic AI across its entire operational structure, using advanced intelligence that makes the right decisions faster, and empowers human workers with a degree of confidence that means they no longer wait to see if it did work; they’re already making their next move. 

The point is, while the technology is ready, the rate of AI business transformation is not mature enough to draw any conclusions for the future. So, let’s borrow from the past: in the early mobile era, “digital transformation” often meant bolting a new channel onto old processes. Then, the platform shift arrived: app stores enabled new products, new business models and new occupations. Now, it’s the native method for both business and consumer, from booking a taxi to running global events. The Progressive Policy Institute estimates the UK “App Economy” supported 667,000 jobs as of May 2023. That’s about 20% of the UK’s net job gains since 2008. 

AI will follow a similar arc: first, task compression; then, business reinvention. The next stage is not “AI replaces people”, but “companies rebuild around human‑and‑AI workflows”. Whole sectors will redesign how work is done, what is sold, and how customers are served. That shift demands new capabilities and therefore new roles, even as some existing roles shrink. Globally, the World Economic Forum expects a big churn by 2030: 170 million roles created and 92 million displaced. Net +78 million. 

The question, then, is whether the UK leads the transition or absorbs it. The moves made so far suggest the former. The Government's AI Sector Study estimates AI‑related employment rose to 86,139 in 2024, up 34% year on year. It also has the immense opportunity to be Europe’s front door into US AI. 

The UK is in a strategic partnership with OpenAI - which opened its first international office here, linking public service adoption, security research collaboration and potential investment in UK AI infrastructure. The UK’s AI Safety Institute has expanded into San Francisco to engage with major labs and strengthen collaboration with the United States on safety. Meanwhile, the AI Prosperity Plan marks a joint innovation taskforce bringing £31 billion investment into the UK’s AI infrastructure from US tech giants. That sounds more like job creation than losses. 

AI job replacement might be moth to a flame for punchy research or LinkedIn virality, but it's the people, companies, and countries that grasp the opportunity of change rather than fear it that will realise future growth the fastest. With it will come more jobs with new responsibilities and roles we’ve never had before. What were Heads of Application Development doing before Apple opened the App Store in 2008?